| Lot size | ~0.52 ac (0.585 gross / 0.455 net) |
| Parcels | APNs 456-09-008 and 456-09-009 |
| Land use designation | Urban Residential |
| Product | 4-story 4BR attached townhomes |
| Living area | ~2,000 to 2,050 sf |
| Garage | Tandem |
| Modeled program | 15 units (April 2026 Anderson plans) |
| County | Santa Clara |
| Location | Almaden Rd corridor, south edge Willow Glen |
| Nearby | Downtown Willow Glen, Lincoln Ave, Canoas Garden |
Urban Residential allows 30 to 95 DU/acre, up to 147 DU/acre with density bonus. Townhomes are consistent with the 30 DU/acre floor. No downzone required.
Under 20 units, the project is exempt from San Jose inclusionary (IHO amended Jan 27, 2026).
Townhome entitlement status is conceptual. No tentative or final map. Not entitled.
The assemblage carries a separate approved SB 35 permit (MPA22-004-01, March 2025) for an 86-unit 100% affordable apartment project. A townhome buyer would forgo that approval and re-entitle. This approved yield is why the ask sits where it does.
Gating item: validate achievable townhome unit count and density with San Jose Planning before committing capital.
| Scenario | Unit PPSF | Per-Unit Value | Total GDV (15 units) | Land/GDV at Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $716/sf | $1,449,000 | $21,740,000 | 18.4% |
| Base | $668/sf | $1,353,000 | $20,290,000 | 19.7% |
| Conservative | $639/sf | $1,293,000 | $19,400,000 | 20.6% |
| Bear | $607/sf | $1,230,000 | $18,450,000 | 21.7% |
GDV (Gross Development Value) is the total estimated market value of all completed units at sale. At the 15 percent to 20 percent land-to-GDV target, supported land runs $3.04M to $4.06M at base. The $3,995,000 ask sits at the top of that range, leaving thin margin for entitlement risk on the conceptual townhome program.
Approach: Direct townhome-to-townhome CMA from closed 95125 sales over the trailing 12 months, anchored to the immediate neighborhood.
Willow Glen splits sharply by location. The Almaden Road corridor where this site sits closes around $610 per sf. The prime Willow Glen interior closes around $800 per sf and up. Value is anchored to the corridor, not the interior.
Same-street anchor is 2070 Almaden Road, next door. Size-matched anchor is 2690 Villa Cortona Way, a 1,963 sf 4BR at $611 per sf. A new-construction premium lifts the resale base toward the top of the corridor range in the upper scenarios.
Four scenarios bracket the outcome: Bear, Conservative, Base, Bull, driven by achievable sale price and entitled unit count.
| Address | Beds | Size (SF) | Sold | $/SF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2070 Almaden Road (Anchor) | 2BR | 1,327 | $825,000 | $622 | Next-door anchor |
| 2690 Villa Cortona Way (Anchor) | 4BR | 1,963 | $1,200,000 | $611 | Size-matched 4BR, corridor |
| 638 Almaden Walk Loop | 3BR | 1,793 | $1,100,000 | $613 | Corridor |
| 2633 Villa Cortona Way | 3BR | 1,790 | $1,050,000 | $587 | Corridor |
| 2286 Almaden Road | 3BR | 1,628 | $915,000 | $562 | Corridor |
| 536 Almaden Walk Loop | 2BR | 1,327 | $820,000 | $618 | Corridor |
| 1715 Sandy Creek Lane | 3BR | 1,954 | $1,570,000 | $803 | Better-located new, upper bound |
| 1261 Setareh Court | 3BR | 2,078 | $1,825,000 | $878 | Prime interior, ceiling for contrast |
The Almaden corridor closes $562 to $622 per sf, well below the $800-plus prime Willow Glen interior. The next-door sale at 2070 Almaden ($622) and the size-matched 2690 Villa Cortona 4BR ($611) set the operating band.
Total GDV is the sum of all 15 completed townhome values at sale.
| Scenario | Per-Unit Value | 15× Units | Total GDV | Land/GDV at Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $1,449,000 | 15× TH | $21,740,000 | 18.4% |
| Base | $1,353,000 | 15× TH | $20,290,000 | 19.7% |
| Conservative | $1,293,000 | 15× TH | $19,400,000 | 20.6% |
| Bear | $1,230,000 | 15× TH | $18,450,000 | 21.7% |
Target: land cost 15 to 20 percent of GDV. Bars show land/GDV at $3.995M ask.
Supported land at 20 percent of GDV runs $3.69M (bear) to $4.35M (bull). The $3,995,000 ask is covered at base and bull and gaps at conservative and bear. Unit-count risk on the conceptual townhome program is the dominant sensitivity.
| Scenario | Units | $/SF | GDV | Land at 20% GDV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 13 | $607 | $15,990,000 | $3,198,000 |
| Conservative | 14 | $639 | $18,110,000 | $3,622,000 |
| Base | 15 | $668 | $20,290,000 | $4,058,000 |
| Bull | 16 | $716 | $23,190,000 | $4,638,000 |
The Base row is the operating case at 15 units and $668/sf. Downside cases turn on unit count, not price, given the corridor comp band.
All valuations are analytical estimates for planning purposes only and do not constitute a licensed appraisal. MLSListings data ©2026 MLSListings Inc.