| Scenario | Unit B/C PPSF | Unit B/C Value | Unit A Value | Total GDV | Land/GDV at Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $787/sf | $842,000 | $645,000 | $26,027,000 | 24.6% |
| Base | $749/sf | $801,000 | $587,000 | $24,915,000 | 25.7% |
| Conservative | $697/sf | $745,000 | $527,000 | $23,409,000 | 27.3% |
| Bear | $607/sf | $649,000 | $432,000 | $20,809,000 | 30.8% |
GDV (Gross Development Value) is the total estimated market value of all completed units at sale. Supported land value at base case: $5,237,000. Supported at conservative floor: $4,853,000. The ask of $6,399,000 represents a $1.16M–$1.55M premium over supported value at base to conservative market conditions.
Primary valuation anchor — SOLD 4/29/2026. 142 Mission Drive, EPA 94303. Sale price $960,000. 1,280 sq ft · 2BD/2BA · 1 story. $750/sf. List price $848,888, 37 DOM, sold 13% above ask. HOA $460/month (Mission Palo Alto OA). Age/condition: 46 yrs, full permitted remodel.
Post-renovation resale — white oak floors, quartz kitchen, Samsung Bespoke appliances, spa bath, private pool complex. Investor acquired Feb 2026 at $750K (distressed, 29 DOM), remodeled with plans and permits, re-sold Apr 2026 at $960K, a $210K gross flip margin. The $750/sf April sale is the operative market anchor. Mission Drive is a quiet interior residential street; Woodland Ave carries an additional micro-location discount for 101 freeway adjacency, industrial western boundary, and creek/flood zone.
| Address | City | SF | Sale Price | $/SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 142 Mission Drive (anchor) | E. Palo Alto | 1,280 | $960,000 | $750 |
| 1318 Terra Nova Blvd | Pacifica | 900 | $737,300 | $819 |
| 1027 Oddstad Blvd | Pacifica | 940 | $765,000 | $814 |
| 103 Pamela Ct | Daly City | 986 | $800,000 | $811 |
| 829 Stonegate Drive | S. San Francisco | 1,060 | $800,000 | $755 |
| 2625 Duhallow Way | S. San Francisco | 1,040 | $800,000 | $769 |
New-build premium confirmed at +10% over resale (n=18 new-build SMC townhome sales). Active EPA townhome listings: 117 Mission Drive ($575/sf, 47 DOM, no contract) and 103 Mission Drive ($584/sf, 1 DOM), both resale, larger units.
GDV (Gross Development Value) is the total estimated market value of all completed units at sale, top-line revenue before construction costs, fees, and land.
| Scenario | Unit B/C Value | Unit A Value | Phase 1 GDV | Suggested Land (20% GDV) | Whole-Project Implied Land |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $842K | $645K | $5,700,000 | $1,140,000 | $5,532,000 |
| Base | $801K | $587K | $5,396,000 | $1,079,000 | $5,237,000 |
| Conservative (floor) | $745K | $527K | $5,001,000 | $1,000,000 | $4,853,000 |
| Bear (stress) | $649K | $432K | $4,328,000 | $866,000 | $4,203,000 |
Supported land value at base case: $5.24M. Supported at conservative floor: $4.85M.
Total GDV is the sum of all 34 completed unit values at sale: 27 market-rate Units B/C plus 7 deed-restricted Unit A’s at AMI-capped pricing.
| Scenario | 27× B/C Market Rate | 7× Unit A (AMI-Restricted) | Total GDV | Land/GDV at Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $22,751,000 | $3,276,000 | $26,027,000 | 24.6% |
| Base | $21,639,000 | $3,276,000 | $24,915,000 | 25.7% |
| Conservative | $20,133,000 | $3,276,000 | $23,409,000 | 27.3% |
| Bear | $17,533,000 | $3,276,000 | $20,809,000 | 30.8% |
Target: land cost 15–20% of GDV. Bars show land/GDV at $6.4M ask.
Suggested acquisition price: $4,800,000–$5,200,000 ($141K–$153K/unit). Gap to ask ranges from $867K (bull) to $2,196K (bear).
Base-case GDV estimates only. Phases 2 and 3 are entirely market-rate Units B/C. Phase 4 carries the remaining 6 affordable Unit A’s at AMI pricing.
Data sources: SMC MLS townhome sales Jun 2025–Jun 2026 (n=311); EPA MLS sales Jun 2024–Jun 2026 (n=250); 142 Mission Drive MLS# ML82043460; EPA Inclusionary Housing Ordinance FY25-26; EPA Development Code Title 18.
Valuation approach: Direct townhome-to-townhome comp. Anchor $750/sf. Three compounded adjustments: log-log size (–1.3%), new-construction premium +7–12% (confirmed +10% from 18 new-build sales), Woodland/Bayshore location discount –5% to –18%.
Unit A: Anchored to $839/sf lower-tier peer median (650–950sf, n=5). 1BD discount –8% to –20% applied from size-controlled regression.
Why PPSF is not linear: Log-log regression R²=0.641, elasticity 1.074. Larger units command slightly more per sf. Hard market price floor exists independent of size.
All valuations are analytical estimates for planning purposes only and do not constitute a licensed appraisal. MLSListings data ©2026 MLSListings Inc. Realist® data compiled by CoreLogic®.